Democrats have used a clear and potent attack against Republicans in recent elections: Don't vote for them because they'll cut your Social Security and Medicare.
But using that playbook next year, as Democrats had planned, just got a lot more complicated.
Continue Reading President Barack Obama blurred the lines this month when he embraced entitlement cuts of his own as part of his budget plan. And Democrats now fear their leader's tack to the center could blunt one of their sharpest weapons in the battle for the House of Representatives next year.
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The concern is that Republicans will have a ready retort — your own president proposed entitlement cuts — and force Democrats on the defensive. The issue is critical to senior voters, who turn out in disproportionately large numbers in midterm elections.
"I think it does make it more difficult for Democrats in the next election," said Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan, who occupies a swing district in Minnesota. "I would think that Republicans will say this cycle that if you want your Medicare and Social Security cut, that's what Obama wants to do. … And I imagine that's what Republicans will campaign on."
Some of the most contested House races are expected in senior-heavy states such as Arizona and Florida.
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The president's shift came after an election year in which Democrats made the GOP's embrace of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan's controversial plan to overhaul Medicare a centerpiece of their campaigns. The offensive, Democrats say, helped them net eight House seats — a respectable figure but short of the 25 they needed to seize the lower chamber.
Historically, polls have shown Democrats are the party seen as most likely to defend entitlement programs.
How large a role Medicare and Social Security play in the 2014 debate remains to be seen — Democrats intend to highlight issues like immigration and gun control, with an eye toward driving minority and younger voters to the polls. But they also want to use entitlements as part of a broader message branding Republicans as overly ideological and uncaring about the middle class.
Driving home that theme, some Democrats say, will be tricky after the president's controversial endorsment of chained CPI, a stingier way of calculating growth in Social Security benefits, as well as hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicare cuts.
"It is highly problematic," said one Democratic pollster and veteran of congressional races, who requested anonymity because he didn't want to be seen as picking a fight with the White House. "There is no question the entitlement debate makes for an easy campaign ad."
