Days before Virginia voters head to the polls, Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli by 7 percentage points in the race for governor, according to the latest Christopher Newport University survey.
McAuliffe led 45 percent to 38 percent, according to a survey of likely voters conducted by the Wason Center for Public Policy and released Friday.
Libertarian Robert Sarvis polled at 10 percent, a substantial draw for a third-party candidate. He appears to be pulling more than two-thirds of his support from voters disaffected with their major party choices in the race, according to Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center.
Perhaps most significantly, the poll demonstrated clearly that Sarvis' candidacy is hurting Cuccinelli, with 37 percent of Sarvis supporters saying they would have voted for Cuccinelli if the Libertarian were not in the race. By comparison, only 17 percent of Sarvis supporters said they would cast ballots for McAuliffe if Sarvis were not running.
"The Sarvis voters don't like either Cuccinelli or McAuliffe, but they look like a net loss for Cuccinelli," said Kidd. "The fact that Sarvis continues to poll around 10 percent, coupled with the fact that his supporters are becoming as firm in their decision as the McAuliffe and Cuccinelli voters, suggests that he's not going to fade."
The CNU poll offers a little more breathing room to McAuliffe than a recent poll by Quinnipiac University, which earlier this week showed Cuccinelli closing the gap to within 4 points of McAuliffe.
As in other polls, the CNU survey shows women voters being the backbone of McAuliffe's support, giving the Democrat a 16-point advantage, 51 percent to 35 percent. McAuliffe is also favored by independents, 42 percent to 34 percent. Combined with Sarvis, 15 percent of self-identified GOP voters say they will not support Cuccinelli.
The Republican has been trailing in recent polls and in fundraising, but he said on a conference call Friday that his camp will not be outworked.
"We're positioning ourselves to shock the political world on Tuesday with a big win."
On a different conference call Friday, McAuliffe spotlighted his support among Republicans and said if elected, he wants his Cabinet to reflect the diversity of Virginia, including of political opinion.
He pointed to the transportation funding package that passed in this year's General Assembly session as an example of leaders in both parties working together.
In the contest for lieutenant governor, Democrat Ralph Northam leads Republican E.W. Jackson 51 percent to 35 percent, according to the CNU poll, a 3-point bump for Northam from the previous CNU survey Oct. 15.
The closest statewide race remains the attorney general contest. Republican state Sen. Mark Obenshain of Harrisonburg received 45 percent of the vote to 43 percent for Democrat Mark Herring of Leesburg, a result within the survey's margin of error.
"That's a lot of ballot-switching," said Kidd. "The attorney general's race is the one we're likely to stay up late for on election night."
The Wason Center surveyed 1,185 registered Virginia voters, including 1,038 likely voters, Oct. 25-30. The total margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points; the margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
